Monday, 22 April 2013

How to explain Bitcoin to your grandmother

As anyone who doesn't have a degree in advanced computer science knows, Bitcoin is conceptually tricky. Thus, when your grandmother is wanting to buy marijuana off the Silk Road and begins asking you to explain Bitcoin to her, what do you do? Ever since early 2012, when I asked the question 'what the hell is Bitcoin?', I've been trying to find ways to explain it to myself. Initially I used the example of the Borg from Star Trek, but more recently I've come to believe that one key to describing it is to start from normal currency, and to then describe Bitcoin in relation to that, rather than trying to describe it as a standalone phenomenon. I'm no Bitcoin expert, so this is still a work-in-progress (Warning!), but next time granny asks you, here's a rough-and-ready way you might lay down the foundations (I've deliberately included a lot of repetition, because that's important when learning).

1) Start from physical cash
We all have a basic understanding of physical bank notes. We know that we can store a banknote in our wallet, and then exchange it directly with someone else for goods or services. We can do this because we collectively believe the note to have value, anchored as it is within an immensely powerful cultural system which gives it such value, and further reinforced by our belief in the central banks that issue it, and the governments that accept it for tax.

2) Now contrast physical cash with electronic bank money
Most of our transactions though, are with electronic money. That's the money you see when you log into your online banking account, and that you can use to make electronic payments (if you granny doesn't do internet banking, talk about the numbers on the ATM screen). Where is that electronic money stored? It's not like I have a wallet that has electronic cash in it that I can take out and give to someone. All our electronic money is actually stored in the IT systems of commercial banks.

3) Point out that electronic money is just a number in a bank's computer, attached to your account ID
DATACENTRE: WHERE YOUR E-MONEY IS STORED
To 'store' your electronic money, all the bank really does is maintain an internal ledger, which is a list that says "Brett has deposited X amount into the bank, and he has received X amount in payments, and he has withdrawn X amount from ATMs, and has paid X amount to other people via electronic payments, and this is how much he has left." And that's the amount you see on your bank statement. Your current bank balance is thus the product of a series of transactions over time that the bank validates and records.

4) Then point out that I cannot hold this electronic money in my own computer
If I had to call Co-Operative Bank up and say, "I have £350 in my account with you. It's currently in electronic form. I'd like to take it out of the bank. Please can you transfer it to me in electronic form, so that I can store it directly on my computer", they'd laugh at me. They'd just say "Sorry Mr. Scott, it's just numbers recorded next to your account ID. We can convert it into cash and give that to you if you come into a branch, but we cannot give it to you in electronic form, unless you could specify another bank where you have another account."

5) And point out that banks are thus intermediaries that 'keep score' of e-money
When we make electronic payments with electronic money, what actually happens is that we send a message to our bank to transfer money to someone else's bank. Your bank then records on its ledger that money associated with your account ID is no longer associated with it (has 'left your acccount'), and the other person's bank records that the money can now be associated with the recipient's account (Later the two banks clear it with each other via their reserve accounts at the central bank if necessary). The important point  is that I never personally send the electronic money to the recipient and they never personally receive it - intermediaries do it on our behalf.

Thus, unlike a physical bank note, there is no 'independent existence' of electronic money. With cash, I could hoard it in a suitcase and count it myself, and show it to other people who agreed it was real. For electronic money to be real though, we rely on a bank to say "yes, Brett originally had £400 in here, and then someone sent him £50, and now he has £450, and then he sent £100 to someone, and now he has £350." We rely on the intermediary to maintain accurate 'score' of our electronic money on its ledger so that I can look on my statement and see an amount I apparently have.

6) Bring up the issue of double-spending of e-money, and how banks prevent it
Let's say my current electronic money balance in my bank account is £15. If I went onto Amazon and spent that on an awesome financial activism book, and then 5 seconds later tried to spend the same £15 on second-hand shoes from Gumtree, that would be an attempt to double-spend electronic money. My bank though, would quickly clock on to the fact that on their internal ledger I only have £15, and that the latter attempted Gumtree payment is thus invalid, at which point they'd reject or reverse it. Thus, there is a 'time-based priority system' in which the first payment is the legitimate one, and can be validated, and the latter is illegitimate, and will not be validated. Only bank intermediaries have the birds-eye view to mediate attempted electronic payments by 'timestamping' them, like a clerk saying "this payment came first, and then this one, but only the first one is valid, because the account does not have a high enough score to complete the second payment".

7) Point out that a trusted intermediary is thus required in order to maintain 'realness' of electronic money
Imagine HSBC could hypothetically find a way to transfer you money in electronic form, so that you personally could store it on your computer. What would that money be? Presumably it would be some type of computer file, but if it was just a computer file, what would there be to stop you just copying and pasting it many times to replicate it? It would be akin to being able to counterfeit money very easily and rapidly. If we were willy-nilly allowed to copy and paste our own electronic money, there would be widespread breakdown in trust in it. If you knew that people kept their electronic money on their own computers, would you trust a payment that came from them, or would you think that maybe they were just creating it whenever they felt like paying someone?

A physical banknote has an identity number, and the mint is supposed to maintain 'realness' of the money by validating each bank note as a real one. With electronic money though, we have to trust in the banking system in order to trust in the money. If we believed that Barclays could randomly change the ledger and type in random amounts of money into people's accounts, we wouldn't trust people's bank balances. Banks maintain 'realness' of electronic currency by convincing us that it's basically the same as physical currency, only much more convenient, and that they keep valid score of it on our behalf. (Let's leave aside the complexities of fractional reserve banking for now).

8) You've now set up the Holy Grail question: Is it possible to create a version of electronic money that, like physical cash, does not require a central intermediary?
Turn to gran and say "So while it's true that I can send cash in an envelope to someone in Hong Kong, how could I do the same with electronic currency without having banks acting as central intermediaries in the process?" Gran ain't stupid, and she knows where you're going with this. She yells "Ta da, enter Bitcoin!"




9) Leap up and shout "Yes Granny, what is required is a decentralised intermediary!"
Let's cut straight to the chase. Bitcoin is a system to replace a centralised banking intermediary (that we have to trust to accurately record electronic money transactions), with a decentralised intermediary that we don't have to trust. That decentralised intermediary is a network of Bitcoin users.

10) Start from a hypothetical bitcoin payment. Explain that I must do a 'shout out' to the Bitcoin network, asking  them to validate, and then record, the transaction
Ignore for a moment how the bitcoins enter circulation, and go straight into describing a transaction. In an ordinary bank-mediated electronic payment, you'd say "I want to pay £25 from my Co-Operative Bank account to Mr. Jones' HSBC bank account, please transfer the money" and the two banks involved would record it on their ledger, first checking to see if you actually had enough to pay that, leaving you with a residual amount in your account. Let's now imagine you have 3 bitcoins (ignore for a moment where they are stored). It's like having a positive balance in your normal bank account. In the Bitcoin system, there are no people's names, there are only numbered addresses, called Public Keys. This is just an identification number, and any bitcoins in the system are attached to (or belong to) particular public keys, which in turn belong to actual people. If I want to spend bitcoins, I must first broadcast an electronic message to the Bitcoin network saying something roughly like:
  • "Hello I am Public Key 191Zh2XUc54EMNZcbkchVfApNQrBjL4Zb3
  • I wish to transfer 1 Bitcoin to Public Key 1M9fzriM7DgxDfGEhKqD2takTkXziqPkYF
  • Please check this and record it on the ledger".

11) Explain what the ledger is
But wait, what is this ledger? In an ordinary bank, the ledger they record your transactions onto is an internal list, almost like an excel spreadsheet. Take a look at your printed bank statement: It starts with an Opening Balance, then lists a bunch of transactions, and then ends with a Closing Balance. Commercial banks hold millions of these ledgers to record the history of money in each account. Now imagine all those were melded into one giant interconnected ledger showing all transactions that had ever occurred between users of a particular electronic currency. In the case of Bitcoin, this ledger is called the Blockchain. It is just a computer file that gets constantly updated, and it is held on the computers of everyone in the Bitcoin network.

12) And explain that it is built and maintained by a network of 'clerks' called Miners
As proposed transactions (like the one in No.10 above) are broadcast, the Bitcoin network collects them them into neat cohorts called blocks (a block of transactions), which are (figuratively speaking) dropped onto the virtual desk of a decentralised network of clerks who go about checking that they are legitimate (picture a decentralised version of a giant room of clerks receiving big dumps of transaction slips to process). This is called 'mining'.

13) If granny asks "Why's it called mining rather than checking", you say:
Perhaps the most elegant aspect of Bitcoin is that to reward people for the arduous task of validating and recording transactions in Bitcoin, they can get rewarded with new Bitcoins. The system is built such that you mine new bitcoins by checking that old bitcoin transactions are legitimate, and it's thus a currency that grows in the process of people trying to maintain its integrity. Moreover, the people in the network actually compete to validate the transactions, lured by the prospect of being rewarded with new bitcoins. So unlike a single central intermediary, where all clerks would be theoretically just be paid salaries to do the drudge work, this is a decentralised intermediary made up of competing mercenary-like clerks, paid only if they succeed.

You can see this process in action at http://blockchain.info:
  • If you look at the bottom of the webpage, you'll see the latest transactions that are being broadcast to the network. If you click on one of them, you'll see they are unconfirmed (i.e. transactions waiting to be validated by the 'clerks')
  • If you look at the top of the page, you'll see the latest blocks of transactions that have been confirmed, each with an ID number, and the number of transactions contained within it (e.g. Block 232412 contains 165 transactions and was confirmed by BTC Guild, a mercenary group of collaborating miners. You can also see that they've been awarded with 25 new bitcoins as a reward for validating the block)
  • On average it takes 10 minutes for new transactions to be validated and included into a block. This means that if you make a bitcoin payment, you'll have to wait for a little while before the payment is confirmed and embedded into the blockchain record

14) Granny looks puzzled. She asks "but how do these miners/clerks check the transactions and why is it so arduous that they have to be rewarded with new bitcoins to incentivise them?"
Yeah, this is where it gets a bit more complex. You want to convey the basic point that the validation process has to be difficult enough that no renegade power group (like the CIA for example) could game the system, but this is also where some of the more advanced cryptography comes in. Even if you understand the cryptography, it's probably unnecessary to explain it in any depth to your grandmother. If she wants to know more, refer her to the original document by Satoshi Nakomoto, and perhaps to this useful paper from Stanford. Just reiterate that as the transaction 'shout-outs' (described in No.10) are received by the network, the miners/clerks must exert a lot of computing power into checking that the people attempting to make payments have enough bitcoins credits to do so (by checking the existing ledger of transactions) and must then update the ledger with these new payments (kind of like saying "OK, it appears your opening balance was this, and you are indeed able to spend this amount of bitcoins, so we'll add the transaction to the blockchain, and now your closing balance is this"). Reiterate that the transactions are validated in groups called blocks, and that when the validation is complete, the block is then added to the blockchain (chain of blocks strung together = blockchain).

15) Which leads to the obvious point that the blockchain thus gets longer over time
The blockchain, being a historical record of all the transactions accepted by the community, thus gets bigger as the transactions go on. Check out a visual representation of its increasing size here.

16) Now the key point to put it all together: The Blockchain is a historical list of transactions, and  is thus also the list of outstanding coins
This is the piece that most trips me up. It seems counterproductive to think of bitcoins as 'things', as if they were like metal coins. The only obvious 'things' in the Bitcoin world are the blockchain and peoples' public key IDs. A bitcoin payment, and the resulting shift in the balances associated with two bitcoin IDs, has 'happened' only once it is recorded on the blockchain by network members that are mining. In other words, it's not like the transaction first occurs and is then later recorded (a bit like me giving someone cash and then later recording it). It is in fact the very act of recording that changes the coin balances, or makes the transaction real.

Payment is thus an act of public recording, not an act of private giving. Using this system, I am able to pay someone in Spain using a simple internet connection to give an electronic shout-out to a public network. After 10 minutes or so the recipient will see the changes reflected in the blockchain, and voila they have received their bitcoins from you.

Thus, my 'coins' actually reside in, or are implied in, the historical record of the blockchain. The blockchain started from the very first 'genesis block' (Block No.0) created by Satoshi Nakomoto, and has since then recorded the creation of new coins, and which public key they belong to. It is a collaboratively-built knowledge bank that holds the record of the amounts each public key has received and spent, and thereby how many coins can be attributed to each public key. Much like your current bank balance is merely the result of the bank having a centralised ledger to record transactions in and out of the account, your bitcoin balance is merely the residual product of changes recorded in the decentralised blockchain ledger. All I have on my computer is a public key which says that I am the rightful owner to a part of that history. My public key is like the key to a virtual, decentralised safe-deposit box facility, and if I lose access to it, I lose access to my claims to the coins attributable to my public key in the blockchain.

17) Some final musings: In what way is Bitcoin peer-to-peer?
People frequently call Bitcoin a peer-to-peer electronic currency, which could easily imply that you could send bitcoins directly to someone else with no third party involved. As you can see though, there is a third party involved. It's just that the third party is a decentralised network of people rather than a single centralised institution like a bank. It is 'peer-to-peer' in the sense of being a payment system under the control of no single institution, but it involves more than just two parties to a transaction.

Sorry gran
Ok, so that's the opening gist of it, and I'm really not sure how many grandmothers would understand this. Even if they did though, the first question that would pop into their wise heads is "Ok my dear, it's all very well to have a clever system like this to validate transactions undertaken in this currency, but you still haven't explained why Bitcoin has value." Right on Gran. That's a much more subtle question entirely. I have my theories about that, and particularly about the quasi-mystical underground hype that initially gave Bitcoin value (see the section called 'The mojo of Nakamoto). If I were you, I'd take a seat and listen to the words of warning your gran may have. Bitcoin indeed is pretty amazing, but it has also attracted a lot of hype from a lot of ideologues. I'd recommend ignoring them and taking time to think clearly about this yourself.

End Note: This is an ongoing Wiki Project
As mentioned at the beginning, I'm not a Bitcoin expert and this is still a work in progress. My main concern is how to find clear ways to explain things in intuitive ways to people. If you have ideas for how I can do so more accurately and effectively, please let me know!



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Monday, 1 April 2013

Asteri Capital and the London Whale: A secret history of Glencore's hedge fund


WELCOME TO OUR TREASURY: HERE BE DRAGONS

The global commodity trading giant Glencore once had an internal hedge fund that made proprietary bets on global markets. It was called Asteri Capital. What do you think it bet on? Most people would probably make an educated guess and say commodities, but they'd be wrong. It bet on global credit markets, bonds, structured credit products and credit derivatives that have nothing to do with commodities.

Weirdness level 1: Why did Glencore have a credit hedge fund?
Ok, that's pretty weird. Why would a commodity company like Glencore have a bond-trading hedge fund? Asteri Capital actually started life as something called Glencore Finance AG, and was, for all intents and purposes, just a proprietary trading desk within Glencore, based out of its 50 Berkeley Street office in London. It furthermore appears that it was originally just part of Glencore's treasury, the part of the firm that deals with things like borrowing money for the day-to-day operations of Glencore and managing its cash flow. Here it is from the horses mouth (I've added in comments in square brackets):
"Glencore International AG [the Glencore parent company] funded the investment activities of Glencore Finance AG [The prop trading desk] on a trade-by-basis [Translation: Whenever it felt like it]... Proceeds from the sale of investments (including capital gains) were returned to Glencore's treasury [Translation: Glencore's treasury was the hedge fund]. Unlike an investment fund, realized profits did not serve to increase Glencore Finance AG's funds under management [Translation: Profits went to Glencore's treasury instead]... Glencore Finance AG was historically engaged in certain investment strategies which Asteri Capital Ltd (the Fund) will not pursue in the future [Translation: Asteri is a more limited successor operation to whatever we were doing before]."
This Glencore proprietary trading operation was started by a guy called Evan Kalimtgis, who left Dresdner bank in April 2005 - along with several other Dresdner traders like Athanasios Stavrou, Phil Burford and Matt Johnson - to take up residence at Glencore Finance AG. Initially it was just a group of guys who got thrown money whenever the Glencore treasury felt they had a worthwhile trade to put on, and any cash they made got returned to the treasury. After a while though, they gained some nominal independence, and in December 2006 they started accepting outside investment, becoming Asteri Capital Ltd, an FSA authorised investment firm.

In his LinkedIn profile, Athanasios Stavrou describes himself as: "instrumental in setting up Asteri Capital (a multi-strategy credit hedge fund with $450mil in assets under management) and creating the initial track record that led to raising external funds in 2006. Managed the long/short structured credit strategy ($100mil) and co-managed the High Yield Fundamental Credit Portfolio Strategy ($125mil). Both involved directional, relative value, macro and fundamental credit investments through bonds, loans, credit indices and credit derivative products." 

Other LinkedIn info come from Matt Johnson (now at hedge fund Makuria) who describes Asteri as a "multi-strategy credit hedge fund of Glencore" doing "correlation, vanilla and bespoke portfolios... relative value credit trading... convertibles strategy, credit volatility... and prime lending".

I SEEK LONDON!
Weirdness level 2: Whale ahoy!
So, Glencore's treasury was harbouring a kind-of-secret credit hedge fund. Does this sound familiar? If you've been following the J.P. Morgan London Whale saga it probably does: J.P. Morgan basically set up a hedge fund in its Chief Investment Office, a part of the firm that is supposed to do risk management alongside the treasury, not proprietary trading. A trader called Bruno Iskil was placing massive bets on credit derivatives, which ended up losing J.P. Morgan some $6 billion.

Which brings us to the second weird part of the story. In October 2008 the Asteri Capital team breaks up. Lehman had just gone bust and it was a pretty bad time for global credit markets. Maybe Glencore was cashing out (or cutting their losses), but the team splits and drifts off to various hedge funds and banks. The leader, Evan Kalimpgis, ends up at none other than J.P. Morgan, where he is hired as co-head of risk management in the Chief Investment Office, alongside Achilles Macris, who he used to work with at Dresdner. They find themselves presiding over a guy called Bruno Iskil, aka 'the London Whale'. So, yes, the guy that was responsible for running Glencore's internal treasury hedge fund was the same guy that was later Bruno Iskil's boss at JP Morgan. The moral of the story thus, is that Evan specialises in working in treasuries that ain't really treasuries.

Weirdness level 3: Some political skeletons in the closet
Let's add one final layer of weirdness for good measure. Back when Evan Kalimtgis was running Asteri, he worked alongside a guy called David P. Goldman, a credit strategist. Goldman also happened to have worked with Evan's father, Kostandinos Kalimtgis, on a late-70s book called Dope Inc, sponsored by a guy called Lyndon LaRouche, which argued that the financial elite in the City of London controlled the global drugs trade. Goldman says he was under the "gnostic cult of Lyndon LaRouche" before breaking away and going all neocon and Wall Street. It seems he and Evan's dad turned on Lyndon: Check out the July 15th 2008 comments by a guy called Roger Moore under this post here. Goldman was, until 2009, writing political commentary under the pseudonym 'Spengler', which he admits here.

Calling all investigators! 3 questions that need answering
Glencore, Lyndon LaRouche, global credit trading, London Whale, secret hedge funds? I mean, WTF? This may be a conspiracy theorist's dream, but I don't have the time to investigate. If anyone else has the inclination to go after this though, I'm interested in three questions:
  1. Why was Glencore hosting Asteri in the first place? Did the Glencore management know the guys originally? Were they doing them a favour? Was it part of Glencore's overall strategy, or just an ad hoc add-on to their commodity trading business?
  2. What was Evan Kalimpgis doing at J.P. Morgan after leaving Asteri Capital, and why did he leave before the London Whale scandal broke? Is there any connection between the activities in the two firms he was part of? Is their a crew of traders who hop through corporate treasuries doing proprietary trading instead of risk management?
  3. What is all this stuff about Lyndon LaRouche? How does Goldman go from writing about City of London conspiracy theories to analysing credit derivatives, and why does he end up hanging out with the son of his former writing buddy at a hedge fund in Glencore?
Maybe there are really boring answers to all these questions, or maybe it's a Hollywood film in the making, but please do send links, comments or suggestions if you find anything out.



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Saturday, 23 March 2013

Kickstarting the gogofactor: Top tips I learned from my crowdfunding campaign

KICKSTART IT BABY
My Indiegogo crowdfunding campaign for a finance activism school was a great success. I managed to raise double my initial target, which is a good sign. I also learned a few useful things about the process along the way, which I thought I'd share with people who're thinking about running their own crowdfunding campaigns. Here they are:

Choosing a platform
There are plenty of articles on what crowdfunding platform to choose, so I won't repeat those here in any detail. I used Indiegogo because it offered the flexible funding campaign - which means you get to keep whatever money you receive even if you don't hit your target. That was appropriate for me because the perks I was offering were limited edition copies of my forthcoming book (The Heretic's Guide to Global Finance) and in a sense I was pre-selling them at a premium to fund the School. Thus, even in the event of the campaign failing to hit its target, people still would have ended up with a tangible reward.

What you don't want in the case of a flexible funding campaign is a situation where your campaign doesn't offer a tangible reward (such as a book), and where you don't put sufficient effort in to actually reach your goal, because then you could end up with initial donors feeling like they've given you money for nothing. One reason to consider using a fixed funding platform like Kickstarter (where you have to hit your target to receive any money) is precisely because donors know that their money only gets used if a critical mass of pledges to donate is reached, which psychologically charges the process and demands more of the fundraiser.

Coordinating with Paypal
In terms of fees, Indiegogo takes a 4% fee as long as you hit your target. If you don't hit your target they take a 9% fee. This is supposed to incentivise you to aim for targets that you know you can achieve. In practice, Indiegogo takes a 9% fee directly from your Paypal account every time someone donates, and then once the campaign has finished they rebate money to you so that the fee ends up being 4%.

A few words on Paypal:

  • Firstly, with Indiegogo and other sites, you need a verified Paypal account in order to receive donations. This takes several days to set up, and entails a somewhat mysterious process of entering into a direct debit agreement with Paypal via JP Morgan Chase (hence all the internet queries from people who've found JPMC RE PAYPAL INTL listed in their bank account direct debits). 
  • Secondly, you also have to have a premier (or business) Paypal account - this doesn't cost anything, but it means Paypal can charge you fees for receiving payments. 
  • Thirdly, a few days into my campaign Paypal detected that there were abnormal amounts of transactions occurring and temporarily froze my account. I had to send them documents proving that nothing suspicious was going on, which was annoying and potentially could have slowed down my campaign. So, make sure that you have updated your Paypal account (e.g. by updating your password etc.) and convinced them that you are who you say you are.

Creating a pitch
I spent a lot of time writing my pitch, but my video wasn't really good enough. People didn't mind it, but I made it in a hurry and it could have been more lively and more interesting. I'm an individual trying to raise cash, so perhaps I got away with not having a professional video, but if you can create it, a good video will certainly pay off. In terms of the pitch, Indiegogo gives useful suggestions on what to include in its campaign template. Basically, tell people what you want to do, why you should be the one to do it, how they can help, and what they'll get, and do it in as few words as possible.

Calling in the crowds
COME TO ME MY LOVELIES
The most important part of any crowdfunding campaign is to call in the crowds. You can have a fantastic pitch and awesome video, but ain't nothing going to happen unless you ask individual people to go see your site, and to help you share it (this point is important, because even if someone doesn't feel financially stable enough to contribute, they can certainly help spread the word). Here are six channels I used:
  • Channel 1 - Email: I started out by sending emails. Group emails don't work. Personal emails do. I also used this as a means to contact people who I haven't had a chance to catch up with for a while, so actually this was very useful regardless of whether people contributed or not. I probably sent around 100 personal emails, plus a couple group emails.
  • Channel 2 - LinkedIn: Not everyone is a big LinkedIn user, but I've got 500+ LinkedIn contacts, so this was an important channel for me. I only chose contacts who I wasn't personal friends with in life (I used Facebook for friends) and I sent about 95 personal messages here. I also prioritised this before Facebook, because more distant contacts take longer to respond in general and so need to be contacted earlier. Indeed, I got some contributions via LinkedIn, but mostly it was several days after I sent the messages.
  • Channel 3 - Facebook: I did a big messaging and posting blitz on Facebook. I've got around eight hundred friends on there, and I sent around 460 personal messages to people. Yeah, that sounds like a lot, and it was pretty time-consuming (by the way, I learned that if you send a load of messages on Facebook, they begin to suspect you're a spamming machine, and require you fill out CAPTCHAs to prove you're not, so try space the messages out).
  • Channel 4 - Reddit: I posted the campaign link to Reddit. It didn't seem to work that well, but Reddit is a slightly unknown entity to me that I have not yet mastered. I suspect this could be a pretty amazing tool if you can choose the right sub-reddit and get a campaign voted up a page. It's potentially worth trying other social bookmarking sites like Digg and Stumbleupon, though I know less about how those work
  • Channel 5 - Articles: I wrote a couple articles about this, one on Liberal Conspiracy and another on Max Keiser's site. I also got some coverage from Pluto Press and the Italian site Non Con I Miei Soldi. It's hard to quantify the impact of these, but certainly worth doing.
  • Channel 6 - Twitter: Twitter was a big source of traffic for me. I tweeted from my @suitpossum account regularly, encouraged others to tweet and finally, I sent direct messages to about 200 followers. In the direct messages, I wasn't asking people to donate, I was asking them to tweet the campaign out. That got a lot of twitter coverage for me, which is turn captured a few contributions from people who I have no personal connection with.
So all in all, I sent roughly 850 personal messages to get traction on this campaign. An important element was getting those contacts to share the campaign on social media so that strangers could see it. Indiegogo also encourages you to get social media activity going in order for their algorithms to assess the popularity of your campaign (what they call 'gogofactor'). I managed to get a fair amount of gogofactor, reaching the front page of their London section and their Education section, and I also managed to get on their weekly roundup blog. That said, it's hard to quantify the effect of this - I suspect that many people casually browsing Indiegogo are actually Americans, so for a London-based project the effects of that were muted.

Collecting the statistics
"HMM... WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?"

So who contributed to my campaign? I had 168 contributors, and here are the stats I've collected about who they were:
  • 68 friends: These are people who might have donated because they know me, or as a favour, or a combination of liking the project and knowing me. Roughly 26 were close friends, and 42 were more casual friends. They constitute around 40% of the total number of donators, but interestingly, only 35% of the money raised, suggesting that on average they gave smaller amounts than more distant contacts (then again, I don't hang out in particularly wealthy circles)
  • 43 (friendly) professional connections: These are people who know me personally through a professional context, but who wouldn't feel under any obligation to fund me. They constituted around 25% of total donators, and around 20% of total money raised
  • 57 distant contacts, and 2nd/3rd degree connections: These are people who I did not contact and who heard about the campaign via social media, friends and articles. Around half of these people are individuals who I have some knowledge of, such as followers on twitter, or people I've briefly met at a conference, or friends of friends. The other half are strangers. They constituted around 33% of total donators, but, importantly, around 45% of the total money raised, suggesting that they gave comparatively large amounts.
The moral of the story thus, is this: Your friends and direct connections will donate to campaigns, but larger amounts come from more distant connections who hear about it indirectly. This again highlights the importance of social media and getting your friends to share on social media.

Now to the business of starting it...
So, as you can see, I now double as a crowdfunding consultant. If anyone wants more tips, please feel free to email me (see address in the sidebar). Oh yes, and now I have to actually start the School that I raised money for. More about that to come in due course. Please feel free to share your own crowdfunding tips in the comment section. Cheers!

Thursday, 21 February 2013

My first crowdfunding campaign! Help me start a school for financial activism

I've taken a leap into the world of crowdfunding this week as I launch my first Indiegogo campaign. I'm aiming to raise seed funding for a London-based School of Financial Activism. Please do click on the link to take a look at the campaign, and if you feel inspired, I'd love for you to contribute to it!



As I've already mentioned in a previous post, I've got a book on the financial system coming out called The Heretic's Guide to Global Finance: Hacking the Future of Money. I want to launch the School of Financial Activism as a way to build on themes I've developed in the book, and to help everyday people grapple with and challenge the financial sector. As a reward for contributing, I'm offering four uber-cool limited edition series of the book, as follows:
  • The Junior Trader series: 100 softcovers, signed and delivered
  • The Hardass Cityboys: 25 hardcovers, one for each of the 25 wards of the City of London, along with a discount voucher for the school of financial activism
  • The Hedge Fund Gamblers: 5 hardcovers, with a special gift, and a voucher for the future courses at the school
  • The Three Hackers: 3 hardcovers with bespoke covers, and a voucher for the future courses at the school
Of course, if you contribute you also get the pleasure of knowing that you've helped me start an awesome educational initiative. If you're hard up for cash, no worries - you can also help out by simply spreading the campaign around on Twitter, Facebook and Email. You can use the following link http://igg.me/at/financialactivism/x/2406554.

I'll keep you posted on how the campaign goes. Please help me make it a success! Please do post suggestions for both the crowdfunding campaign, and the course, in the comments section below. Cheers

Saturday, 9 February 2013

Tools for financial education: Stockmarket Pearltrees

USE PEARLTREES INSTEAD BRO
I've been experimenting with Pearltrees as a tool for financial education. If you've never used Pearltrees before, it's a cool technology for arranging information, sites and other media into organisational trees. I used it in my last post on Goldman Sachs to show how the company is arranged, and this week I've been experimenting with it as a tool to visually represent the FTSE 100 index. The FTSE 100 is an index of the 100 largest publicly-listed companies in the UK, constituting a major chunk of the UK economy. You can explore the Pearltree in the box below, but for greater functionality, go direct to it here.

FTSE 100 and Food Producers / Support Services / Mining in Mega-Indices / (suitpossum)























Click on the various pearls to explore the diagram. Clicking on an individual company launches a pop-up window with information. As you can see, it's a pretty simple and intuitive way to present an otherwise abstract list of companies, allowing you to hone in on the various industry sectors (note how dominant finance and mining companies are in the FTSE), and to get easy access to company wikipedia pages and websites.

Forthcoming attractions
I AM SOOO EXCITED!
I'm going to create more Pearltrees for other major global stockmarket indices. It takes a bit of time to create each one, so I've drawn up a list below of the indices that I want to target, and then as I create the Pearltrees I'll fill the links in.

1) The Dow Jones Industrial: Almost complete here
2) The Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
3) The CAC 40 (French)
4) The Dax (German)
5) Sensex 30 (Indian)
6) The IBEX 35 (Spanish)
7) The Nikkei 225 (Japanese)
8) The S&P / TSX 60 (Canadian)
9) Bolsa IPC (Mexican)
10) FTSE/JSE Top40 (South African)
11) CSI 300 (Chinese)
12) Bovespa (Brazilian)

On the other hand, it is possible that I will grow bored of creating Pearltrees out of the world's most powerful companies. Maybe I'll get an intern to do the rest, or a kindly team of volunteers. If you know of any other cool ways of visualising massive stock indices please let me know - Pearltrees has its limitations and I'm interested to find other tools. Hope you find this useful.

Tuesday, 22 January 2013

Combating Goldman Sachsophobia: Two resources for making Vampire Squid Calamari

Hiss...
In 2010 Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi infamously referred to Goldman Sachs as a Vampire Squid, a term that has since then become something of an overused meme (even Taibbi has expressed ambivalence about it). He's but one individual who's tapped into disturbing imagery to describe Goldman though: For example, the other day I picked up Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs came to Rule the World by Steven Cohan, repleat with a golden snake on the cover, poised to strike. The sentiment was echoed by Alesio Rastani, the trader who upset everyone by saying Goldman rules the world.

I have no doubt that Goldman is a powerful company, and yes, they've been involved in some corrupt-as-hell deals (check out Senator Carl Levin's scathing report about them), but I sometimes suspect that the public hype around the company merely helps to reinforce it's existing self-image - presented in sanitised form in their graduate recruitment videos - as a repository for society's 'best & brightest' destined for  ubermensch greatness. Let's face it though: The average Goldman employee is statistically more likely to be a meek PhD student than a bad-ass Gordon Gekko, or for that matter, a balls-to-the-wall Richard Branson. When I ask "what kind of person aspires to work for Goldman", I see someone who seeks acceptance by the winning team. Would underdog  rogues like Chuck Norris apply for their graduate recruitment programme? Hell no!

Resource 1: What does Goldman Sachs do? An epic pearltree organisational chart
In the interests of breaking down some of the mystique around the Vampire Squid though, I made the following Pearltree diagram (Click on the title to open in a new tab):

It's not rocket science - I just went through their website and put all the pieces in order. Click on any division to expand it and see what they get up to. Over time I'm going to add more information to this, and do it for other banks too, so I'll keep you posted on that. Their securities division is the most important division in the firm, with their investment banking, investment management and 'investing and lending' (direct investing) divisions coming in tie after that. I'd say the 'investing and lending' section is worth more investigation - it's now reputed to be a source of undercover proprietary trading activities. I've included something called the 'nerve centre', which is all the departments (such as treasury and IT) that normally get overlooked, but that make the whole edifice work. Ping me a message if you think anything else should be on there.

Resource 2: Who's wants to watch Blankfein dance!



For anyone with an hour & a half to spare, I've created a Goldman Sachs video list on Youtube called, Goldman Sachs: A List of Diverse Opinions. It includes the CNBC documentary Power & Peril, which is pretty decent if you're looking for something substantial, but if you're looking for some shorter pieces, I comissioned a music video by a new band called Government Sachs, entitled Me and my Bitches. Of all the theories as to Goldman's success - superhuman talent, witchcraft etc - I think the strongest theory concerns its immense lobbying power, and the accompanying internal culture that encourages their people to seek positions of power later in life. The subtle dynamics of this process are brought out in this exchange between James Altucher and Jim Cramer (starting at around 1:20). Whatever the case, I'm going to join David Attenborough in continuing to observe the actions of the vampire squid (vampyroteuthis). If you have any insights on how to understand it's behaviour, or any other interesting videos, please do comment. Cheers

Sunday, 13 January 2013

What are the 100 Top (Anglo-Saxon) Finance Blogs? A Pseudo-Scientific Study


I know what you're thinking: How on earth would I be able to read, let alone rank, 100 blogs? The answer is simple: I have a METHODOLOGY!... and it's about as scientific as a model used to work out the value of a junk-bond backed CLO. Yes, I've taken something completely subjective and added a spurious quantitative element to it. Given that this is standard practice in the financial industry, there should be no problem.

The Methodology
A category like 'financial blogs' is somewhat loose: I've included blogs that focus on analysis of financial news, blogs that waffle about trading and investment strategies, and more general economics blogs that provide analysis relevant to financial markets. Personal finance sites though, are excluded, so no Mint.com. The methodology is based on 3 voting rounds, during which points are scored. Let me explain...

Voting round 1: The List-Makers
As a starting point, I sought to identify four pre-existing 'best of' lists that appeared to be relatively reputable. There were actually surprisingly few of these, but I settled on the following four: 
Each recommendation from these lists counted as a Round 1 Vote. I got 25 from Time, 6 from MarketWatch, 21 from CNBC (this list actually had 18 main suggestions, but mentions 3 others), and 13 from Downtown Josh Brown (his list has 5 major recommendations, but a series of secondary recommendations too). That gives us 55 initial votes from pundits who were prepared to put their reputation on the line.

Voting round 2: The winners of Round 1
I decided that if a blog received two votes or more from Round 1, that blogger was then eligible to vote too. How would they do that? Simple - I used their blogroll as a proxy: A blogroll is a list of blogs recommended by a blogger, an implicit vote of confidence if ever there was one.

The top blogs emerging from Round 1 were Business Insider (Joe Weisenthal), Calculated Risk (Bill McBride), Dealbreaker (Bess Levin), The Big Picture (Barry Ritholz), Pragmatic Capitalism (Cullen Roche), Felix Salmon, Zero Hedge, Abnormal Returns (Tadas Viskanta), FT Alphaville, Naked Capitalism (Yves Smith), Reformed Broker (Josh Brown), and Dealbook. Not all had blogrolls though, but I managed to find 282 blogroll votes from Naked Capitalism, Calculated Risk, The Big Picture, Zero Hedge and FT Alphaville.

Voting round 3: Up-and-comers from Round 2
I used a similar process for Round 3. This time, if a blog had received three or more votes of approval from Round 2 and and Round 1, their blogrolls were eligible to be drawn into the vote pool too. The Up-and-Comers included Brad DeLong, Paul Krugman, Econbrowser, Mish's Global Economic Analysis, Credit Writedowns, The Epicurean Dealmaker, Infectious Greed, The Aleph Blog, Minyanville, MarketBeat, Angry Bear, China Financial Markets, Jesse's Café Américain, Oil Price, The Economic Populist, Cassandra does Tokyo, Economist's View, Interfluidity, and Financial Armageddon. I rounded up the blogrolls of those that had them, and harvested another 1074 votes.

Weighting the Votes
To compile the final list, I weighted the votes. The votes from Round 1 were worth 4 points - because they were from explicit 'best of' lists that had been actively created. The votes from Round 2 were worth 2.5 points, because they were from more passive blogrolls, and the votes from Round 3 were worth 1.5 points. These points are somewhat arbitrary, but the results remain roughly similar even when I use slightly different point weightings. Besides, it's my list. So, here it is, split into four quartiles (please note that only the first quartile is ranked in exact order - thus, while Naked Capitalism is No.2, a blog in quartile 3 is somewhere between 50-75. I don't feel the need for spurious accuracy).


THE F-100

CLICK FOR LARGER VERSION!

Top24 Q2 Q3 Q4
Calculated Risk Cassandra does Tokyo TheMoneyIllusion Daneric's Elliott Waves
Naked Capitalism Financial Armageddon The Research Puzzle Dr. Housing Bubble
The Big Picture Jesse's Cafe Americain Macro-Man Global Econ Matters
FT Alphaville Oil Price Macro Market Musings Greg Mankiw
Felix Salmon Minyanville PeakProsperity Liberty Str. Economics
Business Insider WSJ MarketBeat Streetwise Professor Macroblog
Dealbreaker Economix The Burning Platform Max Keiser
Abnormal Returns Marginal Revolution Tim Iacono Modeled Behavior
Zero Hedge Real Time Economics The Oil Drum Next New Deal
Econbrowser Rortybomb Megan McArdle Psy-Fi Blog
Paul Krugman Von Mises Institute World Beta re: The Auditors
Economist's View The Economic Populist Alea The Market Ticker
Credit Writedowns The Aleph Blog A Dash of Insight WSJ Deal Journal
Reformed Broker Epicurean Dealmaker Bespoke Investment Distressed Debt Invest
Angry Bear Credit Slips Eschaton Brazilian Bubble
Mish’s GlobalEcon VoxEU iMFdirect Macrobusiness
Interfluidity Falkenblog Marc to Market Money is the way
Brad DeLong Ezra Klein Market Montage Automatic Earth
Dealbook Freakonomics Testosterone Pit DollarCollapse
The Baseline Scenario Beat the Press AllAboutAlpha Environmental Econ
China Financial Markets Bronte Capital Bonddad Blog Pension Pulse
Infectious Greed Roubini GlobalEcon Boom Bust Blog Q-Finance
Pragmatic Capitalism Free Exchange Capital Gains & Games Robert Reich
Of Two Minds Footnoted Capital Spectator Worthwhile Canadian
Jeff Matthews Coyote Blog No.100: Your Choice!
Market Folly



So, who is No. 100?
That's for you to decide. The list needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, because I've derived it from pre-existing opinions from respected, but comparatively mainstream commentators and their blogrolls. Not only have I assumed that their opinion is valid, but I've also assumed that there is no group-think or systematic bias from well-known bloggers reinforcing each other's positions with reciprocal links. Perhaps we should call the list the "Top 100 mainstream anglo-saxon finance bloggers who have already been discovered". It doesn't include all the cool smaller blogs that don't post as regularly, or who have weirder things to say. That said, I'm very pleased that the deranged rantings of Michael Fowke from Money is the Way got on - his blog is so surreal that many people don't get it, but it really captures something of the absurd hubris of financial institutions. I'd really like to see Ian Fraser's blog on there, and Tim Johnson's Magic, Maths & Money: Both of them got votes in Round 3, but not enough to get on the main list. I'll have to start work on another list of more marginal (and perhaps more subversive) bloggers - please send me any suggestions!

By the way, if you want some more good lists of financial blogs, check this huge list here, this one here, and this useful site here.



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